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Ready for a feast. Overweight.

Contract flow to accelerate. We expect government pump-priming to pick up considerably after the dismal 1Q09 GDP. Construction news flow should be stronger from 2H09 with all major infrastructure projects set to be rolled-out by mid-2010. Palatable valuations and positive news catalysts drive our Overweight stance on this sector.

A one-year window of opportunity. Only 60% of the projects under the first fiscal package has been awarded to-date, and 29% from the second package. We estimate RM12b projects are still awaiting award from the two fiscal packages. 9MP implementation stays slow, with just 55% of the RM230b allocation spent. We project that PM Najib has until mid-2010 to roll-out meaningful construction projects for the economic multiplier impact to be felt in 2011-13, before the next general elections.

Now for the fat years. Construction has gone through a lean period after the 1994-97 boom. Todate, private sector jobs have dried up, and major infrastructure jobs in oil and gas have been deferred. With the government now set to accelerate its fiscal and development plans, we estimate mid-teens annual growth for the sector over 2009-10.

Major awards in the pipeline. We expect three major awards by mid- 2010: i) the remaining (and larger) packages of the Pahang-Selangor water transfer project (RM6.2b), ii) Sepang LCCT (RM2b), and iii) Klang Valley LRT extension (RM6-10b). East Malaysia will be particularly active. We expect flood mitigation, sewerage and hydropower jobs in Sarawak, and water jobs in Sabah. The RM2.8b Papar- Penampang, Sabah dam and water treatment plant is pending award.

Positive news flow to lift valuations. Positive news flow in terms of tenders and awards ought to lift the valuations of construction stocks, driving further outperformance. Most of our coverage are still trading at below +1 standard deviation of the long-term PER mean. We maintain our Buy calls on IJM Corp and WCT, while our top picks are Gamuda, Sunway and Hock Seng Lee, which offer more upside potential.

Building materials to ride along. We expect cement players to enjoy a broad-based demand recovery, even from smaller construction jobs, while upstream steel players would gain from larger-scale infrastructure projects. Our pick is Kinsteel.

Sector comparison table

Stock Rec Shr px Mkt cap TP Basis PER PER Gross yld Gross yld P/B P/B O/s Order
            CY09 CY10 FY09 FY10 FY09 FY10 Book
    (RM) (RMm) (RM)   (x) (x) (%) (%) (x) (x) (RMm)
Construction
Gamuda Buy 2.58 5,179 3.35 RNAV 24.0 18.4 3.1 3.1 1.7 1.6 8,000
IJM Corp Buy 5.50 5,181 6.30 RNAV 17.0 12.7 6.4 2.7 1.1 1.0 4,800
WCT Buy 1.96 1,515 2.20 10x PER 11.9 12.1 3.6 3.6 1.2 1.1 2,200
Sunway Buy 1.09 597 1.55 9x PER 7.0 6.3 4.1 2.8 0.8 0.7 3,000
Hock Seng Lee Buy 0.75 434 1.17 10x PER 8.0 6.4 3.4 3.4 1.4 1.2 1300
Loh & Loh Hold 4.40 299 4.60 8x PER +
cash/sh
13.8 12.6 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.2 450
Building mat
Lafarge Buy 5.90 5,013 5.60 12x PER 15.5 12.5 3.4 3.4 1.6 1.5 -
Kinsteel Buy 0.81 751 1.30 8x PER 13.6 4.9 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.8 -
Ann Joo Hold 1.79 936 2.00 8x PER 14.9 7.5 4.5 4.5 1.0 0.9 -

Reality check: Increasing urgency

Recession strikes. Weak 1Q09 GDP, which contracted 6.2% YoY and 7.7% QoQ, is a timely reminder to the government to quicken spending under the stimulus packages, lest economic activities grind to a halt as the external environment remains anaemic. Our economics team projects a recession even with pump-priming. Our minus 3.8% GDP forecast for 2009 is based on expectations that pump-priming will kick in strongly from mid-2009, for a small recovery from 4Q09.

Fiscal stimulus must accelerate. Of the RM7b first fiscal package, RM4.2b (60%) worth of projects have been awarded as at 19 Jun 091, an improvement from RM2.4b (34%) as at 17 Apr 09. As for the second package worth RM15b (RM10b development and RM5b operating), RM4.3b has been offered on tender, according to press reports2. We estimate RM12b worth of development projects still awaiting award from the two fiscal packages.

1 Source: http://www.rangsanganekonomi.treasury.gov.my; 2 The press reported RM4.2b for 44,736 projects put on tender under the first package, and RM4.3b for 8,981 projects under the second package (Source: Edge Financial Daily, 23 Jun 09)

9MP implementation must also quicken. 9MP implementation stays very slow, with just RM8.2b spent in 1Q09 (-49% QoQ). Of the RM230b development allocation for 2006-10, only RM127.3b (55.3%) has been spent as at Mar 2009, implying another RM102.7b until end-2010. We estimate the annual spending to be RM54b in 2009, and to top RM57b in 2010 (2006: RM35.8b, 2007: RM40.5b, 2008: RM42.8b). The momentum of awards for construction jobs should thus quicken.




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