Ready for a feast. Overweight.
Contract flow to accelerate. We expect government pump-priming to
pick up considerably after the dismal 1Q09 GDP. Construction news
flow should be stronger from 2H09 with all major infrastructure projects
set to be rolled-out by mid-2010. Palatable valuations and positive
news catalysts drive our Overweight stance on this sector.
A one-year window of opportunity. Only 60% of the projects under
the first fiscal package has been awarded to-date, and 29% from the
second package. We estimate RM12b projects are still awaiting award
from the two fiscal packages. 9MP implementation stays slow, with just
55% of the RM230b allocation spent. We project that PM Najib has until
mid-2010 to roll-out meaningful construction projects for the economic
multiplier impact to be felt in 2011-13, before the next general elections.
Now for the fat years. Construction has gone through a lean period
after the 1994-97 boom. Todate, private sector jobs have dried up, and
major infrastructure jobs in oil and gas have been deferred. With the
government now set to accelerate its fiscal and development plans, we
estimate mid-teens annual growth for the sector over 2009-10.
Major awards in the pipeline. We expect three major awards by mid-
2010: i) the remaining (and larger) packages of the Pahang-Selangor
water transfer project (RM6.2b), ii) Sepang LCCT (RM2b), and iii)
Klang Valley LRT extension (RM6-10b). East Malaysia will be
particularly active. We expect flood mitigation, sewerage and hydropower
jobs in Sarawak, and water jobs in Sabah. The RM2.8b Papar-
Penampang, Sabah dam and water treatment plant is pending award.
Positive news flow to lift valuations. Positive news flow in terms of
tenders and awards ought to lift the valuations of construction stocks,
driving further outperformance. Most of our coverage are still trading at
below +1 standard deviation of the long-term PER mean. We maintain
our Buy calls on IJM Corp and WCT, while our top picks are Gamuda,
Sunway and Hock Seng Lee, which offer more upside potential.
Building materials to ride along. We expect cement players to enjoy
a broad-based demand recovery, even from smaller construction jobs,
while upstream steel players would gain from larger-scale infrastructure
projects. Our pick is Kinsteel.
Sector comparison table
| Stock |
Rec |
Shr px |
Mkt cap |
TP |
Basis |
PER |
PER |
Gross yld |
Gross yld |
P/B |
P/B |
O/s Order |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
CY09 |
CY10 |
FY09 |
FY10 |
FY09 |
FY10 |
Book |
| |
|
(RM) |
(RMm) |
(RM) |
|
(x) |
(x) |
(%) |
(%) |
(x) |
(x) |
(RMm) |
| Construction |
| Gamuda |
Buy |
2.58 |
5,179 |
3.35 |
RNAV |
24.0 |
18.4 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
8,000 |
| IJM Corp |
Buy |
5.50 |
5,181 |
6.30 |
RNAV |
17.0 |
12.7 |
6.4 |
2.7 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
4,800 |
| WCT |
Buy |
1.96 |
1,515 |
2.20 |
10x PER |
11.9 |
12.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
2,200 |
| Sunway |
Buy |
1.09 |
597 |
1.55 |
9x PER |
7.0 |
6.3 |
4.1 |
2.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
3,000 |
| Hock Seng Lee |
Buy |
0.75 |
434 |
1.17 |
10x PER |
8.0 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1300 |
| Loh & Loh |
Hold |
4.40 |
299 |
4.60 |
8x PER +
cash/sh |
13.8 |
12.6 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
450 |
| Building mat |
| Lafarge |
Buy |
5.90 |
5,013 |
5.60 |
12x PER |
15.5 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
- |
| Kinsteel |
Buy |
0.81 |
751 |
1.30 |
8x PER |
13.6 |
4.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
- |
| Ann Joo |
Hold |
1.79 |
936 |
2.00 |
8x PER |
14.9 |
7.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
- |
Reality check: Increasing urgency
Recession strikes. Weak 1Q09 GDP, which contracted 6.2% YoY and
7.7% QoQ, is a timely reminder to the government to quicken spending
under the stimulus packages, lest economic activities grind to a halt as
the external environment remains anaemic. Our economics team
projects a recession even with pump-priming. Our minus 3.8% GDP
forecast for 2009 is based on expectations that pump-priming will kick
in strongly from mid-2009, for a small recovery from 4Q09.
Fiscal stimulus must accelerate. Of the RM7b first fiscal package,
RM4.2b (60%) worth of projects have been awarded as at 19 Jun 091,
an improvement from RM2.4b (34%) as at 17 Apr 09. As for the second
package worth RM15b (RM10b development and RM5b operating),
RM4.3b has been offered on tender, according to press reports2. We
estimate RM12b worth of development projects still awaiting award
from the two fiscal packages.
1 Source: http://www.rangsanganekonomi.treasury.gov.my; 2 The press reported RM4.2b
for 44,736 projects put on tender under the first package, and RM4.3b for 8,981 projects
under the second package (Source: Edge Financial Daily, 23 Jun 09)
9MP implementation must also quicken. 9MP implementation stays
very slow, with just RM8.2b spent in 1Q09 (-49% QoQ). Of the RM230b
development allocation for 2006-10, only RM127.3b (55.3%) has been
spent as at Mar 2009, implying another RM102.7b until end-2010. We
estimate the annual spending to be RM54b in 2009, and to top RM57b
in 2010 (2006: RM35.8b, 2007: RM40.5b, 2008: RM42.8b). The
momentum of awards for construction jobs should thus quicken.
Disclaimer
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